These reports are valuable tools that allow you to compare the status of the current market. This information is intended as a guide leading you to the best time to sell, or buy, a piece of residential real estate in Greater Phoenix. When referenced, this essential data can lead you to your most successful real estate transaction possible.
Greater Phoenix Residential Real Estate Market News
On this page you’ll find: Greater Phoenix Real Estate Market News Summaries, Updates and Forecasts updated bi-weekly.
Current market summary reports – updated at the beginning of each month, and
Pricing updates and forecast – updated in the middle of each month. Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.
Market Dashboard snapshots of the following: residential housing inventory, average listing price, average listing price by square foot, inventory levels, active listings, pending listings, expired listings, canceled listings, average days on the market, average sales, sale success rates, dollar volume, city rankings.
Market Summary for the Beginning of November
The cooling trend that started gently in August has now developed more momentum. Supply is still growing faster than it did last year while demand continues to show a slow weakening trend. Things are getting better for buyers and worse for sellers.
It remains a seller’s market in the inner West Valley and in most areas where properties can be easily found for the median sales price of $213,000 or less. Elsewhere we are dropping towards a balanced market and one or two areas have retreated to a level where buyers have a small advantage.
The Cromford® Market Index moved from around the 144 mark at the beginning of October to around the 134 mark at the beginning of November. This has now become a significant enough change for most people to feel a difference. More sellers are becoming frustrated, especially those in those with the highest growth in active listings and relatively weak demand. Far North Scottsdale comes to mind, but there are several other examples.
Meanwhile in areas like El Mirage, Glendale and Avondale, sellers remain firmly in control.
Here are the basic ARMLS numbers for November 1, 2015 relative to November 1, 2014 for all areas & types:
- Active Listings (excluding UCB): 21,439 versus 24,846 last year – down 13.7% – but up 7.1% from 20,024 last month
- Active Listings (including UCB): 24,644 versus 27,561 last year – down 10.6% – but up 6.1% compared with 23,238 last month
- Pending Listings: 5,821 versus 5,293 last year – up 10.06% – but up 1.9% from 5,789 last month
- Under Contract Listings (including Pending & UCB): 9,026 versus 8,008 last year – up 12.7% – and up very slightly from 9,003 last month
- Monthly Sales: 6,214 versus 6,271 last year – down 0.9% – and down 12.7% from 7,117 last month
- Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $134.17 versus $127.81 last year – up 4.2% – and up 0.7% from $133.19 last month
- Monthly Median Sales Price: $213,000 versus $192,438 last year – up 10.7% – and up 0.9% from $211,000 last month
The above numbers demonstrate a weakness in closed sales but a strength in under contract listings.
This is evidence that the TRID procedures are extending escrow durations. Listings under contract counts are higher and closed sales count are lower than we would have expected without TRID. The effect is not huge, but it appears that several hundred listings carried over into November instead of being closed at the end of October.
Sales were down 1% from October last year, the weakest year over year comparison for any ANY month since January.
The price trends continue to show positive appreciation. The monthly median sales price is being artificially raised by the absence of supply at the low end, demonstrating one of the weaknesses of the median sales price as a measure.
When we examine the market by price, it becomes clear that the top and bottom end of the price ranges are selling less and the middle is selling more, compared with last year at this time. The bottom is selling less due to low supply while the top end is selling less due to lower demand. The mid-range market has plenty of both. Here is the percentage change in single family sales in the high end ranges during October 2015 versus October 2014:
- Over $3 million – sales flat (only 5 units)
- $2 million to $3 million – sales down 72%
- $1.5 million to $2 million – sales down 43%
- $1 million to $1.5 million – sales down 2%
- $800,000 to $1 million – sales up 13%
At the bottom end:
- Under $25,000 – down 100%
- $25,000 to $50,000 – down 35%
- $50,000 to $75,000 – down 38%
- $75,000 to $100,000 – down 50%
- $100,000 to $125,000 – down 47%
- $125,000 to $150,000 – down 24%
- $150,000 to $175,000 – up 7%
- $175,000 to $200,000 – down 2%
Everything else is looking good:
- $200,000 to $225,000 – up 16%
- $225,000 to $250,000 – up 8%
- $250,000 to $275,000 – up 10%
- $275,000 to $300,000 – up 22%
- $300,000 to $350,000 – up 16%
- $350,000 to $400,000 – up 28%
- $400,000 to $500,000 – up 13%
- $500,000 to $600,000 – up 36%
- $600,000 to $800,000 – up 32%
We believe the strong availability of jumbo financing is being particularly helpful to the range from $500,000 to $800,000.
Mid Month Pricing Update and Forecast – October 17
Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.
For the monthly period ending October 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $132.97 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is 0.3% above the $132.54 we now measure for September 15. Our forecast range was $131.99 to $137.37 with a mid-point of $134.68. The actual result did lie within our forecast range, but very much towards the lower end, despite the 0.3% increase.
On October 15 the pending listings for all areas & types showed an average list $/SF of $139.44, 1.2% above the reading for September 15. Among those pending listings we have 87.6% normal, 4.3% in REOs and 8.2% in short sales and pre-foreclosures.
Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on November 15 is $134.11, which is 0.9% higher than the October 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $131.64 to $137.02.
We expected stronger pricing over the last 30 days, but this did not really materialize in any big way. We still anticipate getting above $134 per sq. ft., but it looks like this will take about a month longer than we thought.
Market Summary for the Beginning of October – October 2, 2015
Following an August in which we saw supply start to stabilize and demand get a tiny bit weaker, September developed these cooling trends to the next level. Supply has started to grow and demand weakened slightly again. This is not really a major market development like we saw around this time two years ago, but it might be considered mildly disappointing for those rooting for the market to go from strength to strength.
It remains a seller’s market overall. The Cromford® Market Index moved from around the 148 mark at the beginning of August to around the 144 mark at the beginning of October, reversing the gains in August. This is not enough change for us to feel a big difference in real life, but the sensitive among us have probably detected some cooling. The market balance moved to give seller’s slightly less of an advantage in most areas, and we would all like to know how much momentum there is in that trend.
Sales were up 12% from September last year, better than the difference last month (9%) but not as strong as July (16%). Mind you, September 2014 was an easy comparison as the market was still in the doldrums at that point.
Here are the basic ARMLS numbers for October 1, 2015 relative to October 1, 2014 for all areas & types:
- Active Listings (excluding UCB): 20,024 versus 23,514 last year – down 14.8% – but up 4.8% from 19,101 last month
- Active Listings (including UCB): 23,238 versus 26,336 last year – down 11.8% – but up 3.7% compared with 22,413 last month
- Pending Listings: 5,789 versus 5,481 last year – up 5.6% – but down 7.5% from 6,259 last month
- Under Contract Listings (including Pending & UCB): 9,003 versus 8,303 last year – up 8.4% – but down 5.9% from 9,571 last month
- Monthly Sales: 6,966 versus 6,230 last year – up 11.8% – but down 0.9% from 7,100 last month
- Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $133.24 versus $126.82 last year – up 5.1% – but up 0.7% from $132.26 last month
- Monthly Median Sales Price: $211,000 versus $195,000 last year – up 8.2% – but up 1.4% from $208,000 last month
The price trends are probably the most positive aspect, the annual change in both average $/SF and the median sales price being far above the inflation of most other dollar-priced assets, services or commodities.
When we dissect the market by price, it becomes clear that the top end is the one contributing the greatest cooling effect. The monthly change in days of inventory is quite striking:
- Over $3 million – 733 to 828 – up 13%
- $2 million to $3 million – 475 to 540 – up 14%
- $1.5 million to $2 million – 362 to 406 – up 12%
- $1 million to $1.5 million – 301 to 322 – up 7%
- $800,000 to $1 million – 258 to 271 – up 5%
Between $125,000 and $800,000 there was very little change (90 to 91) in the days of inventory from September 1 to October 1. This part of the market remains in pretty good condition with sales up a healthy 16% year over year.
We have mentioned several times that weakness in the stock market tends to affect only the top end of the housing market, so the poor performance of stocks during the third quarter may take at least some of the blame for the deterioration of the market above $1 million. This is reinforced by the evidence of just 2 closed sales over $3 million during September. In September 2014 there were 9 such sales. The number of closed sales over $1 million suffered less of a decline – from 75 to 68 – but that is still a stark change in a year when we have been reporting strong year over year sales increases almost every month.
The luxury market had a fantastic 2Q in 2015 and could recover its stride quickly if the stock market bounces back, because jumbo loans are still very popular with lenders. However if the stock market does not perform well over the next year, then homes over $1 million are likely to follow suit.
If we look exclusively at homes under $500,000 then the picture looks much more positive. Under $250,000 supply remains unequal to the task of meeting buyers’ needs and between $250,000 and $800,000 the market looks buoyant and reasonably well-balanced. Any problems that develop at the top end are unlikely to spread further down market than $500,000.
September 15 – Mid Month Pricing Update and Forecast
Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.
For the monthly period ending September 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $132.42 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is 0.1% below the $132.53 we now measure for August 15. Our forecast range was $128.92 to $134.18 with a mid-point of $131.55. Last month’s mid-point forecast within 87c of the actual price per square foot measured and well within the 90% confidence interval.
On September 15 the pending listings for all areas & types showed an average list $/SF of $137.84, 1.8% above the reading for August 15. Among those pending listings we have 87.2% normal, 4.7% in REOs and 8.1% in short sales and pre-foreclosures.
Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on October 15 is $134.68, which is 1.7% higher than the September 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $131.99 to $137.37.
We experienced considerable seasonal price weakness this summer but our forecast this month is for this weakness to end and be reversed over the coming 30 days.
Market Summary for the Beginning of September – 9/2015
During August we saw supply start to stabilize and demand get a tiny bit weaker. Overall supply remains stuck some 32% below normal while demand is a tiny bit stronger than normal, with closed sales doing a little better than usual while pending and UCB listing counts are a little weaker. It remains a seller’s market overall. The Cromford® Market Index moved from around the 145 mark at the beginning of August to around the 148 mark at the beginning of September. This is not a big enough change for us to feel any significant difference in real life. The market balance moved just a bit in favor of sellers, but there is almost no momentum left in that trend.
Sales were up 9% from August last year, but not as much as they had been in July (16%). Good but not exceeding expectations.
Here are the basic ARMLS numbers for September 1, 2015 relative to September 1, 2014 for all areas & types:
- Active Listings (excluding UCB): 19,101 versus 23,296 last year – down 18.0% – and down 1.8% from 19,459 last month
- Active Listings (including UCB): 22,413 versus 26,142 last year – down 14.3% – and down 1.9% compared with 22,837 last month
- Pending Listings: 6,259 versus 6,079 last year – up 5.2% – but down 1.1% from 6,327 last month
- Under Contract Listings (including Pending & UCB): 9,571 versus 8,797 last year – up 8.8% – but down 1.4% from 9,705 last month
- Monthly Sales: 7,056 versus 6,492 last year – up 8.7% – but down 11.6% from 7,978 last month
- Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $132.54 versus $126.14 last year – up 5.1% – but down 0.3% from $132.88 last month
- Monthly Median Sales Price: $208,000 versus $198,000 last year – up 5.1% – but down 1.8% from $211,750 last month
Appreciation of around 5% seems to be the order of the day. This may not appear to be a big number but in a deflationary climate a 5% climb should be interpreted as rather impressive. It is mostly down to supply shortages at the low end, with a sprinkling of strong demand in a few luxury markets. We did see the usual seasonal price weakness from the end of June through the beginning of September, but that short term trend is gradually giving way to a resumption of the longer term upward trend. Indications are that sales prices will move moderately higher over the next 4 months. We expect rents to move higher more quickly.
There were few significant changes in the supply by price range with most ranges seeing less than 5% up or down compared with a month ago. The only exceptions were:
- $25K-$50K +11%
- $75K-$100K -12%
- $100K-$125K -16%
- $1.5M-$2MK -6%
Over the past month, most news items were focused on violent gyrations in the stock market with the real estate market settling down into a nice, normal and predictable pattern. There was some concern expressed that stock market volatility could affect the housing market, though there has been little evidence of any correlation between the two over the past 50 years. The only exception was in 2007 through 2008 when the housing market collapsed following the excessive money supply between 2003 and 2006. This brought the stock market to its knees. It does not tend to happen the other way round, especially when there is a chronic shortage of housing.
We note that there is still a huge over-supply of unoccupied housing and commercial buildings in China and the comments above apply only to Greater Phoenix. I guess we should not be surprised if a Communist Party makes a few basic mistakes when trying to run a capitalist system. In many Chinese cities there are over 30 months of supply while we have about 3.
It is good for Phoenix that Arizona’s economy is not dependent on the commodity and raw materials business. Our copper mines are in bad financial shape with copper prices sinking ever lower due to weak demand from Asia. However, many of the biggest mines are owned by Mexican corporations these days. The oil and gas business is likely to have some difficult months, if not years, ahead, but Phoenix’s housing market is not driven by the energy sector, either. A deflationary cycle will make our homes look more expensive to foreigners, but our real estate market depends very little on demand from foreign countries. Canada has supplied most of the foreign home buyers in the past few years but in the last 3 months only 163 Maricopa County homes were purchased by Canadians. That compares with 1,498 in the peak of 2011. This huge percentage drop has not caused us any serious problems, even though the Canadian demand is not likely to come back any time soon.
All in all, our local housing market looks like it is in strong shape to take everything the world economy can throw at it.
(Scroll Down to View Daily Market Snapshots)
Mid Month Pricing Update and Forecast for August 15, 2015
For the monthly period ending August 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $132.74 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is 2.0% below the $135.42 we now measure for July 15. Our forecast range was $131.71 to $137.09 with a mid-point of $134.40. Last month’s mid-point forecast was $1.66 above the actual price per square foot measured, but the actual result was well within the 90% confidence interval.
On August 15, REO sales across Greater Phoenix (all types) averaged $95.15 per sq. ft. (down 9.8%). Pre-foreclosures and short sales averaged $99.54 (down 0.4%) while normal sales averaged $134.45 (down 2.1%). The market share of normal sales rose from 93.0% to 93.8% over the last 31 days. REOs lost market share from 3.5% to 3.2%. Short sales and pre-foreclosures also lost market share from 3.4% to 3.1%. Short sales and REOs tend to show great variability in pricing month to month but this is not because of changes in the market. It is primarily due to the relatively low number of sales which allows outliers to dramatically affect the average.
On August 15 the pending listings for all areas & types showed an average list $/SF of $135.41, 0.5% below the reading for July 15. Among those pending listings we have 86.9% normal, 4.7% in REOs and 8.5% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. The average pricing for pending listings within Greater Phoenix on August 15 in each category was: $140.36 for normal, $98.69 for short sales & pre-foreclosures and $89.08 for REOs.
Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on September 15 is $131.55, which is 0.9% lower than the August 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $128.92 to $134.18. We have already experienced considerable seasonal price weakness this summer and our forecast this month is for this weakness to continue until mid September at least.
Market Dashboard Snapshots
All the statistics shown are for the entire Arizona Regional area as defined by ARMLS. All residential resale transactions recorded by ARMLS are included. Geographically, this includes Maricopa county, a large part of Pinal county and a small part of Yavapai county. In addition, “out of area” listings recorded on ARMLS are included, although these constitute a very small percentage (typically less than 1%) of total sales and have very little effect on the data.
All dwelling types are included. For-sale-by-owner, auctions and other non-MLS transactions are not included. Land, commercial units, and multiple dwelling units are also excluded.
The primary function of this dashboard is to show information measured very recently. For historical trends please refer to the Analysis section.
Daily Market Snapshots
Average Sales Price by Square foot
Average Listing Price per square foot
Average Days on Market
Inventory Levels
Active Listings
Pending Listings
Expired Listings
Canceled Listings
Home Sales
Listing Success Rate
Dollar Volume
City Ranking Table
View Greater Phoenix Housing Market 2015 – Daily Observations
